Real Estate April 17, 2024

How’s the Market? Q1 2024 Review of Seattle Area Real Estate

The Seattle/Eastside real estate market is hot and the Q1 stats support the claim; most homes sold in the first 10 days and either at or above their listed prices. Eastside median sales prices saw double-digit gains of 14% compared to this time last year, while Seattle was close behind with a 9% price bump. We saw more new listings this year than in Q1 of 2023; however, this was not enough to tip the scales and we remain staunchly in a seller’s market for the foreseeable future. The good news for buyers is that interest rates have stabilized and more sellers are jumping off the fence to list their homes. Competition for prime properties will remain high, however, so buyers should be prepared to take a leap of their own when the right home presents itself.

 

Click or scroll down to find your area report:

Seattle  |  Eastside  |  Mercer Island  |  Condos  |  Waterfront

 


SEATTLE

It’s safe to say the spring market hit early in Seattle! We’ve seen a 9% rise in median home price and 69% of listings selling at or above list price, all while interest rates are in the mid 6s. We are bullish on the year to come. Overall sales are down 3% YoY, which is slightly troubling because Q1 2023 saw a 28% dip from the previous year. If you dig a little deeper it seems that the north end (Kenmore and Lake Forest Park) saw a 42% reduction in overall sales with a 30% increase in median price.

Prices are up across the board. The largest jumps in median price are in Lake Forest Park and North Seattle (30% and 23% respectively), while the highest $/sq.ft. jumps were in Madison Park and South Seattle. 56% of all homes on the west side sold in the first 10 days and for an average of 105% of list price. This is a great indicator that the market will continue to be strong in Q2.

The total number of new listings remains relatively low in the city, when compared with years past. This is to be expected as current homeowners stay put to enjoy their cozy sub-3% interest rates. We hope that equity will begin burning holes in their pockets soon—the market could use the inventory. If you’ve been thinking about buying, this could be your year! Get pre-approved and be ready to jump when you see the right home come available.

If you’ve thought about selling your home, it may be a good year to do so. As is typical in the early stages of appreciating cycles, buyers are brought off the fence by “the house” popping up—and they’re paying premiums for cream puff properties. Interest rates have stabilized and experts say they may become even more favorable as the year progresses. Check with your agent about your own unique situation.

 

Seattle Metro Listings vs. Sales

 

Seattle Metro Median Sales Price

 

Seller's or Buyer's Market? Seattle Metro Months of Inventory

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Seattle Metro Market Report

 

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EASTSIDE

The numbers are in and the statistics reflect what agents and consumers have felt thus far in 2024—the market is hot. Median home prices on the greater Eastside are up 14%. 65% of all listed homes sold in the first ten days for an average of 105% of list price. The communities that have posted the largest gains are Kirkland and the area South of I-90 (32% and 21%). Redmond and West Bellevue reported much more conservative median price increases at 4%. The total number of pending homes was up 18% YoY, which bodes well for continued price gains.

If you’re in the market to purchase a home on the Eastside we are hopeful for more inventory this year. Even though rates are still nowhere near their all-time lows, which was the anecdotal explanation for lack of inventory in 2023, it seems that a Q1 sales boom is enough to help potential home sellers feel bullish on 2024. This means you can also expect competition for the prime properties. Our best home buying advice: do your research, act with confidence, and remember real estate is a long-term investment.

If you’re a homeowner thinking about a home sale in 2024, Q2 could be the perfect time. Shoppers are out in droves and they’re prepared to pay top dollar for quality product. The steep jump in median home price should continue at least into Q2. The only threat in Q3 and Q4 is what could shape up to be a distracting election cycle. Though, the election year is likely what is keeping downward pressure on rates. Our best home selling advice: follow your agents’ guidance on timing as it’s sure to be a volatile year. Prep hard and price conservatively. It will all work out in your favor.

 

Eastside Listings vs. Sales

 

Eastside Median Sales Price

 

Seller's or Buyer's Market? Eastside Months of Inventory

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Greater Eastside Market Report

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MERCER ISLAND

What a difference a year makes! In Q1, Mercer Island’s median sale price is already up 13% over a relatively flat year in 2023, rising from around $2,200,000 to $2,520,000. We’re seeing shorter market times and multiple offers; spring has sprung on the Island. With 59 new listings and 37 closed sales inventory appears to be tracking with what we’ve seen in Q1 in years past. That said, condos continue to lag behind single family: only 6 closed sales all quarter. The average price per square foot is $535—about where it’s been tracking since it jumped from $485 in Q1 of 2021. Not a lot of shocking change here.

If you’re in the market to purchase a home on Mercer Island you can expect better inventory this year than last year. Even though rates are still nowhere near their all-time lows, which was the anecdotal explanation for low inventory in 2023, it seems that a Q1 sales boom is enough to help potential home sellers feel bullish on 2024. This means you can also expect competition for the prime properties. Our advice: do your research, act with confidence, and remember real estate is a long-term investment.

If you’ve been thinking about selling your home to upgrade or downsize, Q2 could be the perfect time. Shoppers are out in droves and they’re prepared to pay top dollar for quality product. The steep jump in median home price should continue at least into Q2. The only threat in Q3 and Q4 is what could shape up to be a distracting election cycle. That being said, the election year is likely what is keeping downward pressure on rates. Our advice: follow your agents’ guidance on timing as the situation develops this year. Prep hard and price conservatively. It will all work out in your favor.

 

Mercer Island Listings vs. Sales

 

Mercer Island Median Sales Price

 

Seller's or Buyer's Market? Mercer Island Months of Inventory

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Mercer Island Market Report

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CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE

It seems a healthy start to 2024 in the condo market. While the Q1 of 2023 numbers were down across the board, Q1 of 2024 is looking up with a combined rise in price of 15% and 34% more fresh new listings (YoY).

On the Eastside there were 202 active listings available at the end of the quarter, while 501 homes accepted offers during the quarter. This was the highest number of pendings in one quarter in the last two years! To real estate professionals, “pendings” are the canary in the coal mine of the market. A spike in pendings is a predictor that the market is heating up.

In Seattle new listings doubled from Q4 2023 (534) to Q1 2024 (1019), while pendings and solds are up 20% YoY. If you’re shopping for a condo, keep an eye out for enticing new inventory in Q2. 42% of Seattle condos sold in the first 10 days and for 100% of the list price. 44% of condos took more than 30 days to sell, though they still commanded 97% of their list price. To me this means that pricing is more important than ever in determining your outcome.

Now it’s time for me to stand on the home ownership soap box. There seem to be a lot of headlines about the unaffordability of single family homes. While there is no denying how expensive it is, there is a missing piece to the story: at some point during the prolonged period of “cheap money” first time buyers forgot about the first rung of the property ladder. CONDOS create an affordable option to start building wealth at a younger age. It’s an important real estate product that has been overlooked. We are hopeful that enterprising young homeowners return to the condo market in droves this next real estate cycle.

 

Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.

 

Condo Report for Seattle & Eastside

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WATERFRONT

Seattle and the Eastside each had 6 waterfront sales in the first quarter, with 4 out of the 6 sales for both areas closing at or above the listing price (including one unlisted sale). All of the Eastside’s listed sales were on the market for only 8 days or less. Lake Sammamish was close behind with 5 sales (however 4 out 5 sales went below the asking price) and Mercer Island lagged behind with just 1 sale. Medina boasted the largest waterfront sale, a newer home on 117 feet of lakefront with a mind-blowing 13,590 interior square feet and 1.5 acres of grounds. The most modest sale was for a Lake Forest Park home on just 40 feet of waterfront—it sold almost immediately for 7% above its asking price.

This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis with your trusted professional.

 

Waterfront Report: Seattle/Eastside

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Windermere Mercer Island

 

We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

© Copyright 2024, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and Trendgraphix, and deemed accurate but not guaranteed. Seattle cover photo courtesy of Brooke Davis and Emerald City Snap. Eastside cover photo courtesy of Team RAREnorthwest and Clarity Northwest Photography. Mercer Island cover photo courtesy of Nancy LaVallee and Clarity Northwest Photography. Condo cover photo courtesy of Michael Fleming and Clarity Northwest Photography.

 

Real Estate March 12, 2024

Moving Day: Checklists & Tips to Stress Less

 

Ah, moving day…that magical mix of excitement, chaos, and occasional panic. Whether it is across town or cross-country, the reality of packing, moving, and setting up a new home can become overwhelming. No list can make a move “stress free,” BUT planning ahead and staying organized can help make your move a little smoother. Here is a printable checklist along with our tips for the big day:

 

Download the PDF Checklist: Preparing for Your Move

 

Getting Started

Once you know your prospective move date, set up a quick timeline to make sure you can get all the important tasks done and ready in time for your move.

Consider how much stuff you have by doing a home inventory. This can help you decide whether you need to hire movers to help you or if you will be managing your move on your own. Many moving companies supply inventory lists to help you assess the size of truck you will need.  You can use your list as double duty for insurance purposes later (try using this helpful home inventory app from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners).

As soon as you decide how you will be moving, make your reservations. In general, moving companies and truck rental services are over-booked at the beginning and very end of the month.  If you are planning on hiring a moving company, contact a few in your area for a price quote. To find companies ask your real estate agent, family, or friends, and consult online reviews.  It is also a good idea to request a quote and compare companies.

Preparing for Your Move

  • Moving is a great opportunity to get rid of clutter, junk, or outdated items. Set aside some time to sort through your closets, storage spaces, files, drawers, and more.  Go through cluttered areas and organize items by “keepers”, “give-aways” and “garbage”. You will have less to pack and an opportunity to update after you move. Contact a local nonprofit organization for your donations; some will arrange to pick up larger donations like furniture. If you have items of value, eBay or craigslist are good options.
  • Changing your address is one of the more tedious tasks in the moving process. You will need to change your address with the United States Post Office. You can find the online form here: Movers Guide.

You will also need to change your address with each account you have. Here is a list to get your started:

  • Employers
  • Bank(s)
  • Utilities (Electric, Water/Sewage, Oil/Gas)
  • Cable/ Telephone
  • Cell phone service
  • Credit Cards
  • Magazine subscriptions
  • Insurance companies (auto, home/renters, health, dental, vision, etc.)
  • Pharmacy
  • Other personal services

Let the Packing Begin

Before you start packing, it may help to visualize where everything you have will go. Perhaps furniture will fit better in a different room? Consider the floor plan of your new home and figure out what will go where. This will aid in packing and labeling as you box everything up.

Use a tool like floorplanner.com to plan where furniture and items will go.

When it comes to packing you have some options. You can work with a service that provides reusable boxes for moving or you can reuse or purchase cardboard boxes. Make sure you have enough boxes, packing tape, dark markers, and packing paper.

Pack rooms according to your floor plan. Label boxes with contents and room. This will make it easier to unpack your home, knowing where everything is going.

Real Simple magazine has some great tips on packing for your move.

If you have to disassemble any of your furniture, make sure you keep all the parts and directions together. Make sure you set aside your necessities for the day you move. Being tired and unable to take a shower or make your bed can be hard at the end of a long moving day. Here are some ideas of what you may like to pack in your “day-of-move” boxes:

  • Clean linens for the beds, pillows and blankets
  • Clean towels
  • Shower curtain, liner and hooks
  • Toiletries, hand soap, tooth brush, etc.
  • Disposable utensils, cups, napkins, etc.
  • Rolls of toilet paper
  • Snacks and water
  • Change of clothes
  • Tools for reassembling furniture, installing hardware, and hanging photos

Making Your Move

  • Come up with a game plan with your family, so everyone has a role and a part to play
  • Once the house is empty, do a once over on your old place to make sure it is clean for the next owners/occupants. Here is a useful checklist for cleaning.

Warming Your New Home

Once you have settled into your new home, warm it up by inviting friends and family over to celebrate. Here is a great infographic about housewarming traditions and symbolism. Announce your move to far-away friends and family through moving announcements to make sure you stay on the holiday card mailing list.

 

Ready to make your move? Reach out to get started.

 


 

Windermere Mercer Island

 

We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

© Copyright 2024, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.

 

Real Estate April 18, 2023

How’s the Market? Q1 2023 Review of Seattle Area Real Estate

The first quarter of 2023 saw a price correction compared to last year’s spike, with year-over-year median prices down by 9% in Seattle and 14% on the Eastside.  That being said, prices are already beginning to climb again with steady growth since the beginning of the year.  Buyer demand remains strong despite higher interest rates—competitively priced, well-presented homes are still fetching multiple offers.

 

Click or scroll down to find your area report:

Seattle  |  Eastside  |  Mercer Island  |  Condos  |  Waterfront

 


SEATTLE

For those who purchased a home in Seattle this quarter, it likely felt like there were more options and inventory with a minor rebalance on price. While transactions were down 28% year over year, we also saw median sales price was down from $925,000 to $830,000 since last quarter, which is a 9% adjustment. A down correction in pricing gave relief to buyers feeling the pinch and stress of rising interest rates to 6.5%. Rates have doubled the past 1.5 years but, considering the limited supply of homes for sale, the drop in home prices hasn’t been severe.

 

Neighborhoods like Lake Forest Park saw growth in their number of transactions (up 15%); other neighborhoods like Madison Park and Capitol Hill had nearly half the homes for sale compared to last year. It’s no surprise that as interest rates rise and affordability changes, buyers are casting a wider net to other parts of Seattle to the north. Keep an eye on neighborhoods like Shoreline, Kenmore and Lake Forest Park. Desirable prices paired with accessible transit is a bonus for those who are being asked to return to the office.

 

Multiple offers are apparent in some neighborhoods (price & presentation is key!) and we did experience 30% of homes sell above their listing price. If the shortage of inventory remains and interest rates drop slightly, we could see the frequency of multiple offers increase.

 

Seattle Metro Listings vs. Sales

 

Seattle Metro Median Sales Price

 

Seller's or Buyer's Market? Seattle Metro Months of Inventory

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Seattle Metro Market Report

 

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EASTSIDE

The Eastside was struck by job layoffs in the tech sector, rising interest rates and new property listings (28% more homes than last quarter!) but pending sales remained low compared to the previous year. Transaction volume was much like Seattle’s, with a decline of 22%. Mercer Island was the only community that stayed steady (no increase) in the number of transactions year over year.

 

Interestingly, while prices are down to a median of $1,400,000 year over year, this is a slight 2% increase from last quarter’s median of $1,380,000. 20% of the properties on the Eastside also sold above their listing price (most of these homes were in Bellevue) while sellers needed a shift in expectations with a whopping 58% of homes needing a price improvement to find their buyer. The list price vs. sold price percentage was 97% which means if you were a seller who listed your home at $1,000,000, you would expect to sell for $970,000 this quarter. Again, price and presentation matter and 41% of sellers who did this well sold in the first 10 days.

 

Buyers who are shopping for homes on the Eastside continue to be hyper focused on the school districts, turn-key properties and are serious about locking in their interest rate now, with the hopes of refinancing later this year when economists predict rates could decrease. If rates drop below 5.5% coupled with low inventory levels, we could see the frequency of multiple offers increase.

 

Eastside Listings vs. Sales

 

Eastside Median Sales Price

 

Seller's or Buyer's Market? Eastside Months of Inventory

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Greater Eastside Market Report

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MERCER ISLAND

Even though there were just 39 residential transactions on Mercer Island this quarter, that number has stayed perfectly steady year over year. Over half of these homes sold in the first 10 days on the market, which is no surprise as demand has stayed robust.

 

13% of listings sold above their listing price, but this wasn’t concentrated on a certain community; four homes located on First Hill, Mid-Island plus the South & North Ends respectively, each received multiple offers this quarter. Q1 of 2022 saw a median price of $2,540,000 with just one home listed under $1,500,000. This quarter, the median price is $2,233,000 (a 12% decline) while six homes sold under $1,500,000! Due to the decline in prices and a slower start to the year, many sellers needed a shift in expectations with a whopping 67% of homes needing a price improvement to find their buyer.

 

We haven’t seen the number of new listings in the double-digit figures since Q2 of 2022, and it’s very possible we won’t experience that same level of inventory this year. Baby boomers are holding onto their homes with the benefit of their remarkably low 2.75% interest rate, and families are staying put to finish out the school year.

 

Our advice still stands: if you’re thinking about waiting for lower rates AND lower prices, you might be dreaming. Enjoy the fantastic Island inventory now, lock in your rate and consider refinancing later this year or next spring when economists predict rates will shift down.

 

Mercer Island Listings vs. Sales

 

Mercer Island Median Sales Price

 

Seller's or Buyer's Market? Mercer Island Months of Inventory

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Mercer Island Market Report

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CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE

Seeing first time homebuyers come back to the market or considering an investment? Buying a condo in Seattle or on the Eastside is a fantastic opportunity, especially as many companies are calling their employees back to the office at least 3 days per week. It’s very possible transaction volume will be up next quarter, but for now, transactions were down 44% year over year. With that said, 465 units sold in Seattle; 347 units sold on the Eastside which isn’t all doom and gloom.

 

Just like North Seattle is heating up with residential sales, Lake Forest Park, Shoreline, Ballard and North Seattle condos outpace the rest of Seattle, up 10% on average. These areas are experiencing new construction townhomes that are especially desirable to first time homebuyers. Boutique builders are offering a trendy design palette (have you seen the Scandinavian-style design with light woods and sleek finishes?) paired with all the “bells and whistles” that city dwellers appreciate, like dog washing stations, artificial turf, and EV chargers.

 

For the Eastside, Redmond condos stayed the steadiest, down just 17% year or year. Kirkland was the only neighborhood to experience a price bump, up 11% to a median price of $693,000.

 

The Seattle condo median price has declined just 1% year over year to $515,000, while the Eastside experienced a 12% adjustment to $550,000. This is a $530,000 average when comparing both areas. With interest rates doubling the past 1.5 years and buyers considering a condo unit under the umbrella of a condo association, shoppers will be very particular about their monthly dues assessment and what’s included for those monies as both interest rates and dues have such a dominant effect on their overall buying power. Condos continue to be a necessary niche in our marketplace!

 

Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.

 

Condo Report for Seattle & Eastside

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WATERFRONT

There were 17 privately-owned waterfront home sales in the greater Seattle-Eastside region in Q1 2023 (Eastside-7; Seattle-6; Lake Sammamish-2; Mercer Island-2). This is exactly on par with last year, when we also saw 17 sales in Q1 2022.

 

The highest sale was for a Medina Northwest Contemporary on 115 feet of low-bank waterfront that sold above list price for $20m. The most affordable waterfront was a unique triplex with 1920-1930 era beach cottages on a private boardwalk near the Ballard Locks—a buyer snagged it below list price for $1.9m.

 

This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis with your trusted professional.

 

Waterfront Report: Seattle/Eastside

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Windermere Mercer Island

 
© Copyright 2023, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and Trendgraphix, and deemed accurate but not guaranteed. Mercer Island cover photo courtesy of Petra Varney and Clarity Northwest Photography.

Real Estate March 15, 2023

7 Ways to Make Life Easier When Selling Your Home

When it’s time to sell a home, we all dream of a flawlessly executed transaction where everything goes smoothly and ends with a win-win for you and the buyer. Here are seven tips to help make that happen—and avoid surprise expenses along the way…

1. Repair Your Home First

Making repairs to your home before you sell not only makes it more appealing to buyers, but it can also help you avoid the additional costs that can result from the buyer’s inspection. Disclosing any repairs that still need to be made will help you move smoothly to closing and avoid problems that could otherwise kill the deal. Consider conducting a pre-listing inspection to make sure everything is out in the open before you sell.

2. Make Sure Your Price is Right

The key to selling your home quickly is to find the right buyers. To find the right buyers, your home must be correctly priced. I use a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA)—a thorough, data-backed examination of your home and how it compares to other listings in your area—to accurately price your home. Without an agent’s CMA, it’s easy for your home to be listed at the wrong price.

    • Avoid Overpricing: Overpricing your home will attract the wrong buyers because you will force your home into competition with other listings that are fundamentally superior or have more to offer. When comparing other homes to yours, buyers will focus on the discrepancies and the features your home lacks. Overpricing will often cause homes to sit on the market for extended periods of time and become less appealing to buyers.
    • Avoid Underpricing: Under competitive market conditions, intentionally underpricing a home is a common strategy to attract buyer attention with the goal of starting a bidding war to drive the price of the home up. However, several things must go correctly for this to happen. In all other cases, underpricing your home reflects a lack of knowledge about where its market value fits into the fabric of current local market conditions and can leave you, the seller, unsatisfied with the price your home ultimately fetches.

3. Invest In Staging & Professional Photography

First impressions matter when selling a home. The vast majority of buyers are searching online and taking virtual tours of homes they’re interested in. As such, it’s well worth the time and money to hire a high-quality photographer and I always provide this for my sellers. The right photography can make all the difference in the minds of buyers.

Home staging is also a critical element for getting the most value for a home and selling it quickly. You can even DIY if you have the time and modern decor. It’s also the perfect time to inspect your home for any minor or cosmetic repairs that can be addressed quickly. An aesthetically pleasing home will attract more eyes, and any edge you can give your home over competing listings may be just the ticket to getting it sold.

4. Keep Your Emotions in Check

Selling your home is an act of learning how to let it go. Once you know you’re ready to sell, you’ll need to be able to look at it with an objective eye. This will allow you to approach decisions from a neutral standpoint and work towards what is best for the sale of the home. Having clear judgement will also help you get through the negotiating process and steer yourself toward a smooth closing. Stepping back can be tough, but a good agent will always be happy to give you guidance and help you keep perspective.

5. Wait Until You’re Ready

It may be tempting to rush your listing to take advantage of local market conditions, but waiting until you have all your ducks in a row will make life so much easier. Knowing when to sell your home is a mixture of being financially prepared, having the right agent, and understanding how your home fits into the current local market landscape. Once you’re ready, here are some tips on timing the market.

6. Use an Agent

…and I’m not just saying it because I’m an agent! Selling a home “For Sale By Owner” (FSBO) can save on commission fees, but is a complex and risky process that can easily lead to serious costs. An agent will help you front marketing costs, provide sound advice to help you avoid legal trouble, and ultimately shoulder some of the liability for the transaction. Being represented by an experienced professional will help you avoid mistakes during the offer process, negotiations, and closing that could otherwise be costly or jeopardize the sale. It’s no wonder that a vast majority of sellers choose to work with an agent.

7. Be Willing to Negotiate

Approaching buyers’ offers with an open mind will ensure you don’t miss any opportunities. Before the offers start to come in, it’s important to work with your agent to understand your expectations and strategize which terms and contingencies you’re willing to negotiate on. That way, you can quickly identify the right offer when it comes along. Showing a willingness to work with buyers will also keep them engaged and make sure you don’t leave potential deals on the table.


 

Mercer island blog, windermere mercer island, windermere real estate, seattle blog, live on mercer, live on guides, community information, neighborhood information, real estate, mercer island community, mercer island community blog, mercer island blogger, mi reporter, mercer island real estate info,

© Copyright 2023 Windermere Mercer Island.

Adapted from articles that originally appeared on the Windermere blog, November 22, 2021 & April 7, 2021, by Sandy Dodge.

 

Tips, Trends & Living March 10, 2023

Which Documents Should You Shred, and When?

As the spring cleaning bug hits, many of us will finally be tackling those stacks of paperwork that have been piling up throughout the year.  It’s tempting to chuck it all in the recycle bin and be done with it. However, did you know that it’s actually legal for someone to dig through your trash/recycling once it hits the curb? What’s more, seemingly innocuous documents—like junk mail—can actually contain sensitive info to help someone steal your identity. Scroll down for our list of what you should shred and when (pssst…you can bring it all to our free shredding event happening on Saturday, May 13th from 9am-2pm!).

Shred Immediately

  • Expired IDs & records: passports, driver’s licenses, old insurance cards, identification cards/badges, etc.
  • Utility and credit card bills that have been paid
  • Receipts not needed for tax deductions or warranties
  • ATM receipts
  • Resumes that are no longer needed
  • Junk mail credit card offers
  • Address labels from junk mail and magazines
  • Any unneeded documents containing your address, signature, social security number, PIN, passwords, account numbers, medical records, or other sensitive/private information you wouldn’t want publicly shared

Shred Within a Year

  • Paycheck stubs, once you’ve confirmed the info matches your W-2
  • Bank statements
  • Monthly/quarterly retirement statements (keep annual summaries until you retire or close the account)
  • Medical bills that have been paid

Shred After 6 Years

  • Records from home or condo sales

Shred After 7 Years

  • Tax returns
  • W-2 and 1099 forms
  • Mortgage interest statements
  • Property tax records
  • Statements, cancelled checks, and receipts used as documentation for tax deductions

Do NOT Shred – But Do Store Securely

Keep these items indefinitely in a locked filing cabinet/room, safe, or safe deposit box:

  • Social Security cards
  • Birth certificates
  • Adoption papers
  • Current passports or citizenship documentation
  • Marriage and divorce records
  • Death certificates of family members
  • Deeds & titles for property/automobiles for as long as you own them

 

Save the Date! Free Shredding Event on May 13th

 


While these tips are helpful, they can’t replace the advice of a tax professional. Consult an expert if you have questions.

Mercer island blog, windermere mercer island, windermere real estate, seattle blog, live on mercer, live on guides, community information, neighborhood information, real estate, mercer island community, mercer island community blog, mercer island blogger, mi reporter, mercer island real estate info,

© Copyright 2023, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.

 

Real Estate February 17, 2023

Preparing to Sell Your Home: A Complete Checklist

Getting your home ready to sell can feel like a circus act. Without the right organization, juggling the countless moving parts involved in this stage of the selling process can take its toll. This is the perfect opportunity to create a checklist to keep yourself on track and within your budget. The following information will illuminate the key responsibilities you face as a homeowner as you prepare to hit the market.

We’ve included a comprehensive checklist below of the common tasks required to get your home ready to sell. It is also available as a downloadable pdf here:

Home Prep Checklist PDF

EXTERIOR

This list of value-adding curb appeal projects will help to form buyers’ first impressions of your home and make your ever-important exterior listing photos stand out amongst the competition.

  • Remove peeling and chipped paint; replace with a fresh coat
  • Fix loose trim and fencing
  • Clear gutters and downspouts
  • Make sure there is good exterior lighting and all walkway lights and front-door lanterns work
  • Clean and repair the roof as needed
  • Clear garage of clutter and tidy shelves
  • Inspect chimney for cracks and damage

Yard

  • Mow and trim grass; re-seed and fertilize where necessary
  • Prune all overgrown trees and shrubs
  • Weed flower beds
  • Remove or replace dead or diseased plants, shrubs, and trees
  • Clean grease and oil stains from driveway

Decks/Patios

  • Paint or stain worn areas on wood decks
  • Remove grass growing in concrete cracks; sweep off debris from shrubs and trees
  • Clean all deck rails and make sure they’re secure; replace missing slats or posts
  • Clean outdoor furniture

Front Door

  • Add a fresh coat of paint to get rid of nicks
  • Clean the glass on the storm door; make certain the screen is secure
  • Make sure the doorbell operates properly and there are no squeaks when the door opens and closes

Windows

  • Clean all windows inside and out
  • If needed, add a fresh coat of paint to the window trims and sills
  • Make sure all windows open and close easily
  • Replace cracked windowpanes and those with broken seals
  • Make sure window screens are clean and secure; replace any screens with holes or tears

Front Entry

  • Clean entryway floors and area rugs
  • Downsize clutter in the entry and entry closet to give the appearance of spaciousness
  • Double-check entry lighting to make sure it works

INTERIOR

Not only will these interior projects get your house sparkling clean, but they’re also preparatory steps for staging your home and hosting open houses.

General Interior Cleaning

  • Clean all floors, carpets, walls, and trim
  • Replace burned-out light bulbs
  • Empty trash
  • Remove family photos, valuables, and prescription drugs
  • Tidy up clutter

Kitchen

  • Fix dripping faucets
  • Organize pantry and cupboards so they appear clean, neat, and spacious
  • Make sure the refrigerator and freezer are defrosted and free of odors
  • Clean the oven and cooktop thoroughly
  • Set the table

Living/Family/Dining Rooms

  • Give rooms a fresh coat of paint as needed
  • Repair cracks and holes in ceiling and walls
  • Make sure all wallpaper is secure
  • Repaint any woodwork that is worn or chipped
  • Clean or replace draperies and blinds; open them to maximize light
  • Make sure draperies and blinds open and close
  • Steam-clean carpets
  • Clean rugs and wood flooring, and remove any stains or odors
  • Position the furniture to showcase the size and space of the room
  • Remove and replace any attached items, such as chandeliers and draperies, that you wish to move with you
  • Put away toys and hobby supplies; remove extra magazines and books from tables

Bathrooms

  • Make sure sinks, tubs, showers, and countertops are clean and free of stains
  • Repair any leaky faucets
  • Remove grout and soap stains from tile
  • Replace any missing or cracked tiles or grout
  • Make sure all joints are caulked
  • Make sure all fixtures, including heat lamps and exhaust fans are operating
  • Install a new shower curtain and buy matching towels
  • Store all supplies, such as toilet paper, shampoo bottles and cleansers, out of sight

Bedrooms

  • Repair cracks in ceiling and walls
  • Apply a fresh coat of paint if necessary
  • Make sure all wallpaper is secure
  • Clean draperies and blinds; open them to maximize light
  • Put away toys, clothes, and clutter
  • Neatly make up the beds

Basement

  • Check for water penetration or dampness; call for professional repairs if necessary
  • Get rid of musty odors
  • Clean furnace, hot water heater, and drains
  • Make sure light fixtures work
  • Arrange storage area in a neat and organized manner
  • Make sure stairway handrail is secure

Tidy Extras

  • Use air fresheners or bake treats to make the house smell good
  • Plant flowers to brighten the walkway and enrich the entry
  • Remove any indoor houseplants that are brown or losing their leaves
  • Remove all “fixer” cars, campers, and boats from the property
  • Tidy and declutter all closets
  • Hide or get rid of worn-out throw pillows
  • Store pet supplies
  • At night, turn on the porch light and outdoor lighting

For more information on preparing to sell your home, visit my Home Selling Guide:

 


This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog June 29th, 2022. Written by: Sandy Dodge.

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Real EstateTips, Trends & Living February 10, 2023

Property Tax Relief Programs in King County

More than 26,000 low-income seniors and disabled people in King County who qualify for a tax exemption haven’t claimed it…are you or your family member one of them?

If you are homeowner, make $58k or less per year, and are either age 61+ or retired due to disability, there is a good chance you qualify. You can even retroactively apply for the exemption for the prior 3 years!

Scroll down for details on this exemption plus 4 other property tax relief programs that King County offers.

In another county? Here is the full list of income thresholds for every county in Washington State, and here is another link to view the programs each county offers.

 

Senior/Disabled Property Tax Exemption

WHAT IS IT?

A reduction in King County property tax for seniors, people with disabilities, and disabled veterans.


WHO QUALIFIES?

  • Seniors age 61+

or

  • Those who cannot work due to a disability

or

  • Veterans with service-related disabilities

YOU MUST…

  • Own your home
  • Have occupied it as a primary residence at least 6 months out of the year

INCOME LIMIT

  • $58,423 maximum annual household income in the previous year

WAYS TO APPLY

  • Click here to apply online
  • Call 206-296-3920
  • Ask your local senior center if they help with applications

 

Senior/Disabled Property Tax Deferral

WHAT IS IT?

The ability for seniors & disabled people to defer unpaid property tax/special assessments, including back taxes for as long as you’ve owned the home. Deferred taxes + any accumulated interest then become a lien on the property until it’s repaid.


WHO QUALIFIES?

  • Seniors age 60+

or

  • Those who cannot work due to a physical disability

YOU MUST…

  • Own your home and have lived in it for more than 9 months in a calendar year
  • Meet an equity requirement

INCOME LIMIT

  • $67,411 maximum annual household disposable income

HOW TO APPLY

  • Call 206-263-2338

 

MORE TAX RELIEF PROGRAMS…

 

Limited Income Deferral

WHAT IS IT?

The ability to defer the second installment of your property taxes/special assessments (normally due October 31st) if you are a low-income homeowner. The deferred taxes plus interest become a lien on the property until they’re repaid.


YOU MUST…

  • Have owned your property for 5 years
  • Be living in the home as of January 1st of the application year AND more than 9 months during that year
  • Meet an equity retirement
  • Have already paid the first half of your taxes (due April 30th)

INCOME LIMIT

  • $57,000 maximum annual household income in the previous year

HOW TO APPLY

  • Call 206-263-2338

 

Homeowner Improvement Exemption

WHAT IS IT?

Relief from tax increases caused by major additions or remodels.


YOU MUST…

  • Own a detached single family dwelling (including mobile homes)
  • File your claim for exemption with the assessor BEFORE construction is complete

HOW TO APPLY

  • Call 206-263-2338

 

Flood & Storm Damage Property Tax Reduction

WHAT IS IT?

Tax relief for property damaged by something beyond the owner’s control. Eligible properties receive a reduction of assessed value resulting in lower property taxes. In addition, taxpayers can receive an exemption to keep taxes lower for the 3 years after they rebuild.


YOU MUST…

  • Have your property on the assessment roll as of January 1st in the year it was damaged
  • Have property that was destroyed, OR was in a declared disaster area and reduced in value by more than 20% as a result of the disaster

HOW TO APPLY


 

For more information on any of these programs, visit the King County Assessor’s tax relief page. You can also find info for other counties on the WA Dept of Revenue website.

 


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Real Estate February 1, 2023

Q4 2022 Western Washington Economic & Real Estate Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

 

Regional Economic Overview

Although the job market in Western Washington continues to grow, the pace has started to slow. The region added over 91,000 new jobs during the past year, but the 12-month growth rate is now below 100,000, a level we have not seen since the start of the post-COVID job recovery. That said, all but three counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses and total regional employment is up more than 52,000 jobs. The regional unemployment rate in November was 3.8%, which was marginally above the 3.7% level of a year ago. Many business owners across the country are pondering whether we are likely to enter a recession this year. As a result, it’s very possible that they will start to slow their expansion in anticipation of an economic contraction.

Western Washington Home Sales

In the final quarter of 2022, 12,711 homes sold, representing a drop of 42% from the same period in 2021. Sales were 34.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022.

Listing activity rose in every market year over year but fell more than 26% compared to the third quarter, which is expected given the time of year.

Home sales fell across the board relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.

Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:2. This was down from 1:6 in the third quarter. That ratio has been trending lower for the past year, which suggests that buyers are being more cautious and may be waiting for mortgage rates to drop.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Western Washington from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. All counties have a negative percentage year-over-year change. Here are the totals: Jefferson at -19.9%, Skagit at -27.7%, Mason -30.7%, Lewis -30.9%, Clallam -34.3%, Whatcom -36.3%, Kitsap -38.5%, Snohomish -40.3%, Island -42%, Grays Harbor -42.3%, King -43.1%, Thurston -45.8%, San Juan -46.8%, Pierce -46.9%.

Western Washington Home Prices

Sale prices fell an average of 2% compared to the same period the year prior and were 6.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. The average sale price was $702,653.

The median listing price in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 5% lower than in the third quarter. Only Skagit County experienced higher asking prices. Clearly, sellers are starting to be more realistic about the shift in the market.

Even though the region saw aggregate prices fall, prices rose in six counties year over year.

Much will be said about the drop in prices, but I am not overly concerned. Like most of the country, the Western Washington market went through a period of artificially low borrowing costs, which caused home values to soar. But now prices are trending back to more normalized levels, which I believe is a good thing.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Western Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Grays Harbor and Whatcom Counties have a percentage change in the -6.5% to -3.6%+ range, Clallam, Jefferson, King, and Skagit counties are in the -3.5% to -0.6% change range, Snohomish and Pierce are in the -0.5% to 2.4% change range, Mason, Thurston, Island, and Lewis counties are in the 2.5% to 5.4% change range, and San Juan County is in the 5.5%+ change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Western Washington from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. San Juan County tops the list at 6.9%, followed by Lewis at 4.8%, Thurston at 3.8%, Island at 3.7%, Mason at 3.5%, Snohomish at 0.8%, Pierce at -0.2%, Clallam at -1%, Skagit at -2.1%, Jefferson at -2.5%, King at -3.1%, Whatcom at -4.1%, Kitsap at -5.3%, and finally Grays Harbor at -6.5%.

Mortgage Rates

Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop.

My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets such as Western Washington will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from Q4 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q4 2023. After the 6.79% figure in Q4 2022, he forecasts mortgage rates dipping to 6.27% in Q1 2023, 6.09% in Q2 2023, 5.76% in Q3 2023, and 5.42% in Q4 2023.

Western Washington Days on Market

It took an average of 41 days for homes to sell in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was 17 more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and 16 days more than in the third quarter of 2022.

King County was again the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 31 days to find a buyer.

All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market rise from the same period a year ago.

Year over year, the greatest increase in market time was Snohomish County, where it took an average of 23 more days to find a buyer. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, San Juan County saw average market time rise the most (from 34 to 74 days).

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Western Washington for Q4 2022. King County has the lowest DOM at 31, followed by Kitsap at 45, Island and Snohomish at 35, Whatcom, Thurston, and Skagit at 36, Pierce at 37, Clallam at 38, Jefferson at 40, Mason at 43, Grays Harbor at 46, Lewis at 49, and San Juan at 74.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The regional economy is still growing, but it is showing signs of slowing. Although this is not an immediate concern, if employees start to worry about job security, they may decide to wait before making the decision to buy or sell a home. As we move through the spring I believe the market will be fairly soft, but I would caution buyers who think conditions are completely shifting in their direction. Due to the large number of homeowners who have a mortgage at 3% or lower, I simply don’t believe the market will become oversupplied with inventory, which will keep home values from dropping too significantly.

A speedometer graph indicating a balanced market, barely leaning toward a seller's market in Western Washington in Q4 2022.

Ultimately, however, the market will benefit buyers more than sellers, at least for the time being. As such, I have moved the needle as close to the balance line as we have seen in a very long time.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 


This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog January 26th, 2023. Written by: Matthew Gardner.

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© Copyright 2023, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.

 

Real Estate January 18, 2023

How’s the Market? Annual Review of Seattle Area Real Estate

While 2022 began on the heels of an extreme seller’s market we saw in the wake of the COVID pandemic, the second half of the year showed a marked shift back toward normalcy.  Rising interest rates and tech layoffs significantly slowed down the number of home sales.  The good news for buyers is that we finally saw a rise in the number of homes for sale (although we’re still not back up to our pre-pandemic inventory level).

 

Our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, predicts that median home prices will continue to pull back from their 2022 spike, but will then resume a more normal level of appreciation once interest rates stabilize.  You can find his full forecast here.

 

Click or scroll down to find your area report:

Seattle  |  Eastside  |  Mercer Island  |  Condos  |  Waterfront

 


SEATTLE

The Seattle real estate market seems to be out to prove the old “tortoise and the hare” fable. The tale the numbers are telling is that when you don’t boom big, you’re likely not to bust big. 2022 was a year of steady growth and a lot less fear than in surrounding cities.

 

On average in a 2022 total look back, Seattle’s median price was up 10% (to $940,000) over $852,000 in 2021. Most of this gain was realized in the first half of the year, and unfortunately eroded in the second half of the year—when combined, it paints a fairly clear picture that we’re back to a “normal” market coming into 2023.

 

Queen Anne-Magnolia (up 17%), West Seattle (up 14%) and the Central District (up 13%) all fared better than average. Kenmore hung in at a 6% gain, which, given the volatility of interest rates and speculation, is still a respectable number for the year!

 

The headline for this year is that overall transaction volume was down in a big way. In Seattle, there were a total of 8,173 homes that sold; this is down 30% from the 11,670 sales we saw the year before. The slower market is not, however, creating a climate of fear where homeowners jump to cash out at the peak. New listings for the year were down a total of 13%.

 

We’ll be watching closely in 2023. If consumer confidence builds with the stabilization of interest rates, we’re going to have an even larger inventory crisis than we’ve faced in years past.

 

Seattle Metro Listings vs. Sales

 

Seattle Metro Median Sales Price

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Seattle Metro Market Report

 

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EASTSIDE

Finally, it’s safe to say that balance and normalcy have returned to the Eastside real estate market. The irony is: now that we’re in a balanced market, which is what homebuyers have purported to crave for a long time, the buyer’s appetite to purchase has all but dried up; overall transaction volume was down 36% in 2022 (5,448 sales vs. 8,569 in 2021).

 

If any of you are considering a move in the next 5 years, NOW is the time. The pendulum has swung back in the buyer’s favor: home inspections, negotiations and contingencies are all prevalent. We may not be at the exact “bottom” of pricing, but interest rates have stabilized, there are good homes for sale, and competition amongst buyers is rare. This is IT!

 

The Eastside’s Median Sale Price was $1,525,000 in 2022, up 14% over 2021’s unbelievable 30%+ gain ($1,350,000). Woodinville rules the day at a 17% rise, followed closely by Mercer Island (+16%) and Bellevue (both East and West at +15%).

 

While the market is slower paced, we are not in dire straits. This is thanks to a continued lack of inventory (down 5% YOY), and the amount of equity built in 2020 and 2021. Home sellers will spend the year working to determine the best way to attract a buyer. Price, preparation and timing will all play an important role. Home shoppers are sure to revel in their day in the sun!

 

Eastside Listings vs. Sales

 

Eastside Median Sales Price

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Greater Eastside Market Report

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MERCER ISLAND

Mercer Island was once again its own unique micro-market within the Pacific Northwest. Total sales volume was only 209 homes, down 46% from 2021. This means that of nearly 10,000 households on the Island, only 2% purchased/sold a home.

 

The pace of sales was affected not only by interest rate volatility but also by the local tech economy/job market. The median home price nevertheless held strong with a 16% rise over 2021, even with the price correction that we all started to feel mid-year.

 

Buyers have decided to sit on the sidelines while it all shakes out, but home-owners on Mercer Island are not running for the hills. They’re patiently waiting (often without adjusting their asking prices) for the demand to return. It seems to be working: the median list price to median sales price ratio ROSE in 2022 from 77% to 88%.

 

2023 should be a solid year for Mercer Island real estate. All the pieces are in place: community pride, great schools and easy transportation. Let’s see if the upward trend continues!

 

Mercer Island Listings vs. Sales

 

Mercer Island Median Sales Price

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Mercer Island Market Report

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CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE

Seattle condos saw a Median Sale Price increase of 6% (to $520,000) and Eastside condos saw a 13% increase (to $620,000) in 2022. 53% of Seattle condos and 67% of Eastside condos sold in the first ten days on the market. This growth is larger than what we saw in 2021, which hopefully is some good news to anyone thinking of selling a condo in 2023. It seems that demand for urban living may be returning.

 

66% of Seattle condos and 77% of Eastside condos sold at or above their listed price. Those listings that sold in the first 10 days on the market went for an average of 1% and 4% above their list price, respectively..

 

On the Seattle side, Shoreline and Lake Forest Park condos saw about a 20% increase—and on the Eastside, Sammamish and East Bellevue condos carried the day with 19% and 23% increases—in Median Sale Price.

 

Overall, condos get our award for “ones to watch.” They remain a bright spot in terms of affordability when compared to single family homes, especially on the Eastside. Compare the $620,000 median sale price of a condo to the $1,525,000 median home price and it’s clear condos are a great first rung of the property ladder that might get attention in 2023.

 

Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.

 

Condo Report for Seattle & Eastside

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WATERFRONT

There were 93 privately-owned waterfront home sales in the greater Seattle-Eastside region in 2022 (Eastside-32; Seattle-36; Lake Sammamish-15; Mercer Island-10). This is down significantly from the banner year in 2021 when we saw a whopping 170 total sales.

 

This truly is a market with geographic limitations. With such a high volume of sales in 2021 and a relatively strong 2022, we expect 2023 to be more conservative. Our late-2022 market shift from an extreme seller’s market to a more balanced level of supply and demand coincided with the close of the waterfront selling season. This means pricing will be tricky this season as we explore uncharted waters. More than ever, real estate experts will be essential to analyze the data and consult their spidey-senses to find the price that will attract a buyer in this new normal.

 

This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis with your trusted professional.

 

Waterfront Report: Seattle/Eastside

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© Copyright 2023, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and Trendgraphix, and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

Real Estate December 15, 2022

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023


This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.


1. There Is No Housing Bubble

Mortgage rates rose steeply in 2022 which, when coupled with the massive run-up in home prices, has some suggesting that we are recreating the housing bubble of 2007. But that could not be further from the truth.

Over the past couple of years, home prices got ahead of themselves due to a perfect storm of massive pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates. While I expect year-over-year price declines in 2023, I don’t believe there will be a systemic drop in home values. Furthermore, as financing costs start to pull back in 2023, I expect that will allow prices to resume their long-term average pace of growth.

2. Mortgage Rates Will Drop

Mortgage rates started to skyrocket at the start of 2022 as the Federal Reserve announced their intent to address inflation. While the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, they can influence them, which we saw with the 30-year rate rising from 3.2% in early 2022 to over 7% by October.

Their efforts so far have yet to significantly reduce inflation, but they have increased the likelihood of a recession in 2023. Therefore, early in the year I expect the Fed to start pulling back from their aggressive policy stance, and this will allow rates to begin slowly stabilizing. Rates will remain above 6% until the fall of 2023 when they should dip into the high 5% range. While this is higher than we have become used to, it’s still more than 2% lower than the historic average.

3. Don’t Expect Inventory to Grow Significantly

Although inventory levels rose in 2022, they are still well below their long-term average. In 2023 I don’t expect a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, as many homeowners do not want to lose their low mortgage rate. In fact, I estimate that 25-30 million homeowners have mortgage rates around 3% or lower. Of course, homes will be listed for sale for the usual reasons of career changes, death, and divorce, but the 2023 market will not have the normal turnover in housing that we have seen in recent years.

4. No Buyer’s Market But a More Balanced One

With supply levels expected to remain well below normal, it’s unlikely that we will see a buyer’s market in 2023. A buyer’s market is usually defined as having more than six months of available inventory, and the last time we reached that level was in 2012 when we were recovering from the housing bubble. To get to six months of inventory, we would have to reach two million listings, which hasn’t happened since 2015. In addition, monthly sales would have to drop below 325,000, a number we haven’t seen in over a decade. While a buyer’s market in 2023 is unlikely, I do expect a return to a far more balanced one.

5. Sellers Will Have to Become More Realistic

We all know that home sellers have had the upper hand for several years, but those days are behind us. That said, while the market has slowed, there are still buyers out there. The difference now is that higher mortgage rates and lower affordability are limiting how much buyers can pay for a home. Because of this, I expect listing prices to pull back further in the coming year, which will make accurate pricing more important than ever when selling a home.

6. Workers Return to Work (Sort of)

The pandemic’s impact on where many people could work was profound, as it allowed buyers to look further away from their workplaces and into more affordable markets. Many businesses are still determining their long-term work-from-home policies, but in the coming year I expect there will be more clarity for workers. This could be the catalyst for those who have been waiting to buy until they know how often they’re expected to work at the office.

7. New Construction Activity Is Unlikely to Increase

Permits for new home construction are down by over 17% year over year, as are new home starts. I predict that builders will pull back further in 2023, with new starts coming in at a level we haven’t seen since before the pandemic.

Builders will start seeing some easing in the supply chain issues that hit them hard over the past two years, but development costs will still be high. Trying to balance homebuilding costs with what a consumer can pay (given higher mortgage rates) will likely lead builders to slow activity. This will actually support the resale market, as fewer new homes will increase the demand for existing homes.

8. Not All Markets Are Created Equal

Markets where home price growth rose the fastest in recent years are expected to experience a disproportionate swing to the downside. For example, markets in areas that had an influx of remote workers, who flocked to cheaper housing during the pandemic, will likely see prices fall by a greater percentage than other parts of the country. That said, even those markets will start to see prices stabilize by the end of 2023 and resume a more reasonable pace of price growth.

9. Affordability Will Continue to Be a Major Issue

In most markets, home prices will not increase in 2023, but any price drop will not be enough to make housing more affordable. And with mortgage rates remaining higher than they’ve been in over a decade, affordability will continue to be a problem in the coming year, which is a concerning outlook for first-time buyers.

Over the past two years, many renters have had aspirations of buying but the timing wasn’t quite right for them. With both prices and mortgage rates spiraling upward in 2022, it’s likely that many renters are now in a situation where the dream of homeownership has gone. That’s not to say they will never be able to buy a home, just that they may have to wait a lot longer than they had hoped.

10. Government Needs to Take Housing More Seriously

Over the past two years, the market has risen to such an extent that it has priced out millions of potential home buyers. With a wave of demand coming from Millennials and Gen Z, the pace of housing production must increase significantly, but many markets simply don’t have enough land to build on. This is why I expect more cities, counties, and states to start adjusting their land use policies to free up more land for housing.

But it’s not just land supply that can help. Elected officials can assist housing developers by utilizing Tax Increment Financing tools, whereby the government reimburses a private developer as incremental taxes are generated from housing development. There are many tools like this at the government’s disposal to help boost housing supply, and I sincerely hope that they start to take this critical issue more seriously.

 


About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 


This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog November 14th, 2022. Written by: Matthew Gardner.

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